Saturday, April 25, 2015

Fictitious Worlds

I want to start wring a lot more fiction in the coming years... Most of the fiction I have written falls somewhat into the category of romance. Most of the fiction I want to write falls into the categories of sci-fi and fantasy. I like coming up with settings for fantasy and sci-fi worlds, but most of my characters seem to naturally fit better into romance. I have a tendency to think of sci-fi worlds in terms of their histories and (for want of a better term) natural laws. I think if I start developing these worlds enough, I'll start coming up with more interesting people and stories to put inside them.


  1. A Time to Scatter Stones. Real world with magic where magic is a finite resource; magicians mainly concern themselves with reading each other's minds and assassinating one another to gain control over each other's magical artifacts. Normal people have witnessed and remembered magic but not frequently enough to think anything of it. Anyone can become a magician, but unless they begin in childhood cannot become a powerful one. In fact, magical abilities tend to peak in adolescence. All magicians are highly specialized, partly naturally, partly by choice. Dark comedy satirizing magical fantasy in general (e.g. families contrive impossibly complex languages for internal communication that they use to control their magical artifacts, not because magic requires weird languages, but because they don't want anyone else to be able to use their artifacts against them).
  2. Ex Post Facto. Developing new technology is pretty much illegal because experiments in AI caused stock market crashes and other developments aided terrorist activity through things like bitcoin. The internet, and computers are so important to life as we know it, that they cannot be forbidden or cracked down upon. However, the government seeks to ensure that all platforms are very closed, and writing code without specific permits to write exactly the code the government inspects and deems harmless is quite illegal. The government also arrests and imprisons quite a few people who were involved in developing the open source software that lead to some of the major problems, even though their activity wasn't illegal at the time, while in prison they form alliances with gangs and other organized crime that gradually grows into a major chaotic force.
  3. Fantasy world with approximate technological development of ancient Greece. Ordinarily humans don't have any supernatural abilities, but gods and demons are real. Some of the gods are blood-thirsty and demand human sacrifice and other forms of violence, so do some of the demons - the moral character of the supernatural being has no bearing on whether they are gods or demons. However, all societies pretty much agree on which supernatural beings are gods and which ones are demons, and making ties with the beings considered demons is considered "evil" whereas serving the gods is not. The only noteworthy difference between gods and demons is that demons negotiate with humans and allow certain humans to channel their power; whereas, the gods simply dictate their will to humans and have mercy on whom they will have mercy and deal harshly with whom they will deal harshly. Gods sometimes fall and become demons, and demons sometimes rise to godhood. People only turn to the demons in desperation, and the demons are often willing to help, for a price. In exchange for renouncing the demons, the gods often free people who have gained power through their deals with the demons from the contracts they have signed. The story is told through the human perspective, but humans are pretty much pawns in the overall story. The backdrop of gods and demons negotiating for increased power in their own political system that somehow depends on the prayers and sacrifices of people is what really dictates the movements in history in this world.
  4. A world where physics and chemistry abide by the same laws as they do in our world. It has three sapient species, two of which are related and vaguely hominid. They have skeletons, and warm squishy bodies, and give birth to live young, and are capable of regarding each other as pretty much equally "human." The third sapient species is entirely other. It's more like an arachnid. It has an exoskeleton and twelve limbs. It communicates through clicking/dancing patterns that it makes with its feet that are completely incomprehensible to the other species -- both of which are pretty much incapable of learning each other's languages to something approximating fluency, but are able to learn them well enough to communicate certain ideas. The arachnid creatures are too incomprehensibly other to trigger normal moral considerations at least when I think about them. When would be a good-evil axis for behaviors with similar impact done by other hominid creatures falls on a curiosity-horror axis for these creatures instead. When hominids seek to eradicate them, it doesn't seem evil or horrible; it simply seems natural. When their bites paralyze hominid creatures with extremely painful neurotoxins and they drag the hominids back to their nests to spend a few days of agony being occasionally re-paralyzed by the excruciating bites until a new brood of young hatch at eat them alive, it provokes horror but not moral outrage. In fact, the concept of pain seems to be incomprehensible to the arachnid creatures -- though their behavior upon returning to a destroyed nest demonstrates that they have some concept of loss and possibly-emotions that are full of sensations that say something not-good has happened. I try to imagine the world from both hominid species' perspectives, and try to make both species human enough that their own perspective of themselves seems human, but non-human enough that their own perspective of each other paints the other species as very sub-human, in a way that makes them seem sub-human to human readers. For example, they are mutually incapable of learning each other's language to fluency, even though members of both species are capable of speaking many languages within their species fluently -- and view themselves as having mastered one or more of the somewhat-childish languages that the other species speak. When listening to the other speak in their own language, the other seems ignorant and barbaric. When attempting to speak the other's languages, people cannot attain enough fluency to express abstract concepts well, even though they think they can, so they interpret the other's inability to grasp their attempts to convey abstract concepts as evidence that the other species cannot understand abstract concepts. Since no one can speak both languages and close the gaps, they never overcome the belief that the other species is more barbaric and less human/sophisticate/intelligent. Similarly, they are just different enough from each other that each other's technology seems obviously poorly designed.
  5. Holworth. The nanobots have eaten the world and most of the rest of the solar system (other than the sun). They are specifically programmed never to destroy biomass and to destroy any other nanobots that do destroy biomass. They are also programmed never to kill a biological organism unless they are specifically instructed to do so by another biological being, and to destroy any nanobots that fail to act accordingly. They are also programmed to remain pretty much dormant when they are not part of a network that is somewhat controlled by a biological being's instructions, and to destroy any nanobots that operate independently of the influence of a biological agent's instructions (except in specific approved ways described by "Pretty much dormant"). "Pretty much dormant" means that they still must enforce the rules about destroying nanobots that violate instructions, but other than that they wait to be absorbed into a broader network. There are also a few special broader networks, most importantly the Registry and a few infrastructure networks involved in shipping energy that dormant nanobots participate in by default. They are allowed to perform many optimizations, inferences, and guesses in the process of generally going along with what a biological agent wants them to do, and can follow vague instruction to optimize for certain conditions, as long as they don't kill any biological organisms in the process. (Killing biological organism requires specific instructions; it cannot be done simply because it helps complete a broader goal that they were instructed to complete.) The nanobots are also required to report certain forms of data to the Registry, and destroy any nanobots that fail to comply with the reporting requirements of the Registry, as well as destroy any nanobots that report data to the Registry that the Registry determines indicates a defect warranting destruction. There are several other protocols that the nanobots are forced to obey and enforce, on pains of being destroyed. (Nanobots that fail to enforce an obligatory rule are also destroyed.) This world is full of NPCs who live in the Coves and subsist as best they can. The people of interest in this world are mostly cyborgs who have extended their own minds with biological computers made out of bacteria as a workaround that allows them to use the full extended power of their mind to control their nanobots. Some free-floating biological computers that control nanobots also exist, but a common tenant of the many cults that exist within Holworth is that these devices must be destroyed, along with anyone who works with them, so purely biological computers have trouble persisting. Pretty much nothing exists in Holworth beside people, cyborgs, biocomputers, and nanobots. And the existence of non-cyborg people is debatable since even before birth people's bodies get filled with nanobots that allow them to survive in a world where people can obtain limited amounts of nutrients from food, but pretty much only get energy by absorbing electricity from the nanobot environment, and don't breathe the air that doesn't exist instead relying on the nanobots in their blood to convert the CO2 in their blood streams back to oxygen and sugars using electricity.
  6. Fantasy world where magic is a rare inborn trait in which some people have very specific magical abilities (more like super powers than magic). People who have magic can learn more general abilities through practice, but it is all still filtered through their primary ability. Members of the ruling class are very likely to be magical and keep pretty much everyone else in poverty/slavery. (The ability to be magical gets passed along like a dominant gene... though I'm not going to give any explicit in world genetic explanation of magic.) The ruling class kills anyone they discover to have magical abilities in the peasant/slave classes (almost guaranteedly the result of having been fathered by a member of the ruling class); some of them manage to flee and live like outlaws and sometimes manage to join associations like the maroons and Seminole Indians, which are able to offer some protection and resistance. Since having a magical child as a peasant is pretty much only possible if the child's presumed father is not the child's actual father, the head of the household where magical children are born are usually willing to kill them, especially since they have a strong incentive to do so. The ruling class has pretty much limitless rights with respect to what they do to the lower classes and most members of that class abuse their power excessively. It occasionally receives token Tolstoy-opposition from inside. It's the worst parts about the caste system in India mixed with the worst of new world slavery mixed with the worst of feudal Japan, and it's maintained by magic. I haven't decided what sorts of neighboring countries exist. My story so far only deals with the rural desert backwaters (without the waters) of the country -- in a village that is just barely on a route between two major cities.
  7. Real-world with magical realism where some people's imaginations have the ability to project manifestations into actual life... mostly their subconscious imagination rather than their conscious imagination. This disproportionally results in the manifestation of things out of nightmares. A few people gradually learn to control this ability, some use it to fight against the monsters of their imagination, and some use it to seek to gain personal power. This ability is reasonably common in children, and most people lose it as they age, but the few people who truly control their ability are almost all adults. Most people don't believe in the paranormal and seek purely natural explanations for why strange bad things are happening and why these things mostly involve young children. This results in constant witch hunts.
  8. Another possible future. Someone creates something enough like AI that it allows him to extensively control the world, and he (and successors) turns the rest of the world into a bunch of sandboxes for experimenting on what happens when he exposes people to various conditions, and a playground for the things he wants to do. He has many children in many of these different worlds and elevates some of them to deity-like status. He also has himself cloned many times (doing some genetic experimentation in the process), and his line of succession passes down through his modified clones. The stories mainly concern the people living in his sandbox worlds -- where they experience contrived levels of technology. One society has all of the technology useful for building spacecraft, but live in an environment that was chosen to make the production of food entirely impossible, and can only survive through their service to "the gods" who literally deliver their food to them from on high.  Some societies have no written language but have industrial-revolution era technology in most other respects. Others have computers and electricity but weaponry hasn't advanced past swords and bow and arrows. Some of these societies are permitted to live in as much peace as they can enforce internally, and other societies are subject to the whims of the gods that occasionally open up gates towards neighboring places... having preached through their temples a tradition which instructs them to go to war and pouring out their wrath on those who refuse to fight when this happens. The god-king of this particular world is neither sadistic nor malevolent, but he is also not benevolent. He just enjoys playing god.

Other ideas for fantasy worlds that I've toyed with quite a bit include the following. I might eventually merge several of these ideas into one, because I have too many worlds already, or I might add them into the world's I've already mentioned.
  • I really like the idea of a magical system with time-adjusted trade-offs. So magicians, wizards, and casters. Magicians use wands and can learn some magic really quickly, but they also peak early. They basically have a set playbook of prepared spells. Wizardry is physically demanding enough that people peak in early adulthood like professional athletes do... but like pro athletes people really don't have any hope of becoming a powerful wizard unless they've trained their whole life. Casters don't use any implement to channel their power. It's just hand gestures. But people basically never peak.
  • I've thought about having worlds with three genders one of which is very much unlike the other two, and written a little about a world like that, but I'm not sure there's anything more interesting in that kind of world than you can get simply by having sexual dimorphism with two genders. Two similar with one radically different is more interesting than three genders that are radically different from each other -- because it lets you keep the male-female dynamic similar to what it is in the normal world without changing things too much. I think this is the wrong kind of creativity for imaginary worlds.
  • However, I am very fond of the idea of alternation of generations like in the typical life cycle of plants (the sporophyte generation is nothing like the gametophyte generation). In the same vein, metamorphosis in a sapient species could be quite interesting.
  • I do like the idea of sexual dimorphism too as part of fiction. I especially like one idea that I've been playing with. In typical high fantasy, the elves are specialized for the forest, the dwarves for the caves. But the humans are generalists who can move between the niches. I like the idea of having one gender be adapted for the general case and being dimorphic with the other gender which is fragmented into a bunch of niches. The males of the seafaring communities have webbed feet and are optimized for swimming; the males of the mining societies are short and stocky; the males of the planes are tall and swift and have high endurance. None of them can really survive well in any environment other than the one which they have adapted for, and none of them really want to. Whereas, the females can travel around, while not necessarily as adapted for any particular niche.
  • I also really like the idea of giving astrology more physical significance than it had in the ancient earth. Because the night skies are essentially a giant clock of annual patterns, they are naturally synced with other annual patterns, like migrations and weather patterns which made astrology useful for societies before calendars were invented. The moon's influence on the tides also affects ground water which has significant implications for planting. One way to amplify this effect is to give the world more moons, and another is to give it precession and nutations, possibly erratic. I think Europa has some erratic changes in its orientation, and the closer a body is to being spherical the more likely such changes are to occur. (I'd write about the radical climate changes that can only be read in the stars... the explanation would probably not be included in the actual story.)
That's a lot of topics...

But 40-80 books is a reasonable number to write in a lifetime. I think I will be able to tackle some of these at least, and turn them into interesting worlds with interesting series.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Topics I need to discuss

I have discussing quite a few topics on my todo list, and I probably should periodically create short lists of what I haven't discussed. This is one of them.
  • Immortality, cloning, and having kids. I don't want to be myself forever...
  • The problem of language. "Monkey see. Monkey do." is a completely different paradigm from "Simon says," and "Simon says" is worse.
  • Cryonics. I'm in favor, but mostly as signalling.
  • Death. If it's not terminal bad, it's instrumental good.
  • Error theory. Sort of. God is the tribe personified, and morality is the will of god.
  • More error theory. I'm much more sympathetic to the idea of the existence of meta-level claims about morality that are true, than I am about the possibility of the existence of true object-level claims about morality.
  • Utilitarianism, now and later. How does the fact that what people value changes over time fit with utilitarianism?
  • Utilitarianism: present and future. Trying to optimize future utility is very different from trying to optimize present utility.
  • The null hypothesis -- How do we decide which hypothesis is null and is there a better way to do it?
  • Privileging the hypothesis. I don't think it's as bad as Eliezer does.
  • An alternative to Occam's Razor, genetic algorithms based on modifying existing hypotheses get to start with probability stolen from their parents.
  • Everyone is a sociopath with respect to their enemies. Not being a sociopath is just about belonging to some in-group.
  • Sometimes I wonder if I'm on the autism spectrum. My approach to morality, the way I review books, and the particular ways I like to approach organization all seem a bit autistic to me. In a good way, I think.
  • To be verbs -- are they bad?
  • Solomonoff Induction -- is it actually asymptotically optimal?
  • Should I seek to be happy?
    • Talk about sanity...
  • Humor, hyperbole, and sarcasm. Should I try to be funny?
  • Slate Star Codex: No arbitrage in social science but plenty in business, even though businesses are subject to much higher selective pressure. Hmm...
  • Slate Star Codex on the control group being out of control, and related. How should you update your beliefs as you collect new evidence?
  • Time, evidence, and over-fitting. Only predictions provide evidence for the accuracy of a claim. Well, only predictions and explanatory power.
  • Time, evidence, and equations. How would you expect physics to be different if we are in a timeless universe versus if we are in a universe where time is relevant?
  • Models of science need to include models of scientists.
  • An introduction to extreme skepticism.
  • Be wary of non-monotonic trends.
  • Self-perpetuating phenomena and multi-faceted explanations of major shifts.
  • What are reasonable "prior" odds?
  • Andy Warhol sponsoring art.
  • A quick overview of social history as I understand it.
  • Evolution: an introduction to the code I'm writing to test ideas followed up with occasional posts about results.
  • Pronouns. Easy reference please. (Let's have more than one pronoun even if we have gender neutral pronouns.)
  • Language is an encryption.
  • City states have small governments. Empires have big governments.
  • I was wrong about Lawful Good and literature. Terry Pratchett totally does it.
  • Resource allocation is hard!

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Alternative reality

I really don't think the world needs to be the way it is. I also don't like most of the way it is... alternative reality is my way of coping with the world by imagining a world that is not implausibly different from this one. It's not how the world would be different if the butterfly effect was true, and I had some power to predict it anyways, and was able to cause slight perturbations that resulted in a radically different world, and it's not how the world would be if I had godlike powers to change it as I see fit, or even how the world would be different if I were dictator or king of some major world power.

Instead it's how the world would be different if I and a few clones who thought pretty much identically to me and had among us enough time to manage the institutions I'm going to describe would spend a billion or so dollars to alter the world if we had the money to do so.

I'm not going to just say education, politics, the peer review system, the media, and all that are broken, and somebody ought to fix them. Instead, I'm going to say, education is broken, and if I had $200 million in 2015 dollars to throw at the problem to try to solve it, here's how I'd spend that money. It's still a fantasy, but a fantasy that is feasible for at least someone somewhere.

My alternative reality has a few institutions that I've thought about quite a bit that I'll write about more later --  they are for the most part affiliated with each other:

  • The New America Party is not as its name suggests a political party, but an organization meant to exploit the Republican-Democrat divide. It's a meritocratic organization that sets a platform of policy and looks for electable people who are willing to support that platform, and focuses all of its energies on getting those people to win the primaries of elections for either the Democratic or Republican party in areas where that particular party tends to win the follow-up election. It mainly focuses on state and local elections, at least initially.
  • The International Institute of Technology and Applied Arts is a university system dedicated to real-world skills. It has no sports scholarships, no faculty to study history or language, except to the extent that these things can be applied. It doesn't even have sciences unless those sciences are applied. So it does have computer science, engineering, and robotics. For softer disciplines, people study generating hype, networking, charisma, and generally how to entertain an audience or sway a crowd. All students participate in hands-on activities and are at least partially evaluated on their ability to do things that affect things or other people. The university invests heavily on ensuring that it has a robust alumni network that helps its graduates get ahead of everyone else.
  • The Unnamed Press -- needs a better name eventually -- is a news network that specializes in local news and sells with all other kinds of news available as add-ons. It makes a lot more sense that it sounds.
  • Places of Production: on-demand creation of material things, together with a marketing network for people who can demonstrate that they've designed something worth distributing. Like Fab labs on steroids, pretty much.
Then there are a bunch of smaller ideas that fit generally within this whole framework. I'll explain them as I write about them at some future time.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

I need to stop caring (about what I'm doing)

[This is an old post that I once meant to publish]

I always think that the more I care about something the better I will be able to put my energies into getting it done well, but, empirically, this is simply false. The more I start to care about the things I'm doing, the more stressed I become about them and the more reluctant I become to deal with them. "Don't ruin it" becomes my mantra, and I become afraid to touch it at all.

Emotions really get in the way of doing stuff, for me at least. Emotional attachments, more so than pure emotions. Being sad doesn't really harm my ability to function, nor does being happy, but being afraid paralyzes me, and the more I care about what I'm doing the more afraid I become that I'm not doing it well. I naturally want to care about quality, but I can't care about quality. Caring about quality ruins my ability to create it.

"Do" needs to be my mantra, just "do." The more I do, the easier it becomes to do more, and the happier and more satisfied I become. This isn't about spending all of my time working or anything like that. It applies to having relationships with other people just as much as it applies to anything else. I need to just send the damn email, make the damn phone call, etc. I get worried every time I pick up the phone; I frequently freak out right before I send an email. What if I interrupt someone in the middle of something important? What if my friends compare notes about how often I call them and someone gets offended that I show obvious preference towards somebody else? Most of this seems overtly stupid. I would never think about comparing notes related to how often people call or anything like that, why would it make sense for me to think that anyone else does it? But I don't really gossip at all anyways. There are a lot of things I would never think about saying if it were about someone else that I eventually discover other people have said about me. When I say I don't gossip, I don't mean that I'm morally opposed to gossiping or anything like that. I just mean it never comes up. If I don't have anything I'd rather talk to somebody about than gossip, we probably aren't friends... I'd rather discuss statistics or biology or politics or economics or any one of dozens of subjects that are a lot more interesting than other people's personal lives. Most people have pretty boring lives. I have a pretty boring life right now, though it has had a few interesting episodes in the past, but none since I graduated college.

Or meeting people and then connecting with them on LinkedIn. You'd think that would be the simplest thing ever to just do, but I always worry that people will think I'm exploiting them if I try to connect with them on LinkedIn. It's idiotic. Presumably connecting on LinkedIn is slightly in our mutual best interests, and if we know each other even a little, we should be happy to do it. That sort of was how I felt about it anytime someone tried to connect with me back when I had LinkedIn, but then I deleted it because it became an extra source of stress associated with meeting people.

I need to figure out how to disassociate doing something from thinking about doing it. Just go through the motions, hit enter, and be done... I'll work on figuring out a training program for myself to make me better at doing this later.

Short term goals

Things I'm working on in the present and/or near future:

  1. I need to become better organized and more conscientious.
  2. I'm applying for jobs. I need to finish my Hired profile... so I need to get a haircut, and get  a decent profile picture. I should ask my mom where she recommends, because she said she knows a good barbershop near where I live now.
  3. I have three people I need to email related to getting feedback from others on To Change the World. One of them has expressed a willingness to give me feedback on that book in particular. Two of them spoke more generally about wanting to read my books when I was working on a previous project.
  4. I have a pile of books I need to review. I'm going to try to get through three this week: Blind Watchmaker, Zero to One, and Pratchett's Making Money.
  5. I want to resume reading Principals of Neural Science at a rate of one chapter per day, and reviewing each Part individually. I was making pretty good progress on it through October, and haven't really gotten much read since then. I'd expected at one point to have it finished in 2014, but somehow got distracted.
  6. I want to step up my participation on LessWrong. Write at least one comment per day, and at least one discussion post per week seems like a reasonable goal.
  7. My writing has for the most part been growing too long. I need to start writing more short posts. Target writing one 500 word or shorter post a day for the next month. Might be lists.
  8. I'm in progress on reading a few books that I need to finish reading.
  9. I have two long essays that I need to finish writing this week.
That's enough for now.

Tomorrow's short essay: Create a preliminary list of ideas for alternative reality (not alternate reality), with possible synopsis of what I mean be alternative reality.

Thursday's short essay:
Create a list of topics that I need to cover in future short essays. (Utilitarianism, the null hypothesis, and some autism-spectrum introspection (I don't think I'm on it, but!) are on my mind today)

In the next fortnight:
Start writing/drafting/outlining some fiction publicly online.

Long term programming goal.

I think I need to have at least one longer term goal. In particular, I think I tend to get overwhelmed when I start seeking to accomplish something sizable in the relatively near future.

There is one particular programming exercise that I have wished I'd been working on for the past five years, and keep thinking would be fun and interesting. I've got distracted away from doing it many times by trying to come up with something I could accomplish in the next six months (for bragging rights, resume purposes, whatever). That's never been a good policy for two reasons. Firstly, I lose interest in those projects fairly rapidly... they aren't things that naturally interest me enough to maintain my enthusiasm for more than a week or two at a time. Secondly, six months is an incredibly short time horizon for programming, and it's unrealistic to think I can do much of anything in six months.

The project I want to do is difficult to describe, but basically, I want to write something that is a cross between vim and a REPL, that is specifically optimized for dealing with Python, javascript, and HTML. I want to write an interactive tool for making it a little more easy and fun to write the kinds I've programs I tend to write.

I think I want to start working on this project with a long horizon until completion, picking one feature per week to commit to. This week, I just want to write something that prints what I type on the screen and preserves enough keypress data that I can use it to write my eventual keyboard shortcut tool. (One of the things, in particular, that I have wanted for quite some time is a program that lets me easily create mappings where pressing a and b at the same time then releasing them at the same time (to within human-precision of measurements of the same time) is different from pressing a then pressing b then releasing a then releasing b, which is different yet again from pressing and releasing a then pressing and releasing b. This is not that hideously complicated to do in javascript, except insofar as everything having to do with keypress data is hideously complicated in javascript relative to how hard it should be. I've looked at a few libraries, including mousetrap that don't really do what I'm trying to do. Most of them also fail to distinguish between ä and å, or even ñ which is a problem. (As far as I am aware, keypress data doesn't allow you to distinguish between these types of characters in javascript, but you can get it from the text input field --- as long as you keep one of those active (and invisible)). So it's a little bit yucky to do in javascript, but not nearly as yucky as it is to put text on a screen in tkinter, so you gotta pick your poison, and I pick javascript/html as my toxin of choice for UI. (Why do I want this? Because hitting jk at the same time to exit insert mode, for example. True, you never need to hit j then k in vim, but vim waiting for your next key to determine whether it should act on just j is really annoying. (Yes, I've also remapped escape to my capslock key on my computer, but that messes me up when I'm using somebody else's computer.))

Anyways, step 1 is fairly obvious, and I should do that. This week. Then next week, come up with step 2. Then, maybe, 260 weeks from now, I'll have something done. That's a long time to accomplish something.


Friday, April 3, 2015

Introduction

Informed Dissent has strayed too far from my original purposes. I've been writing personal commentary on there, and I don't want to use it for that... so that's what this is now for.

I'm especially going to use this space for reflection and planning... starting with today's plans.

Informed Dissent is going to become my first scratch space for drafting things I'll eventually post on LessWrong or other sites. I'll use it so that I can link to long explanatory footnotes when I think that something deserves more clarification than I can easily give in an overview... and I'll also use it to just get through the first version of saying something. Usually things come out better on the second or third attempt.

I want to start a sequence on Error Theory and a sequence against Occam's Razor, and a review of cognitive biases. I'll post the first objection to Occam's razor today, hopefully short.

I've been mulling over a revision of how computer programming is done for quite a while... I've been keeping my thoughts on this mostly private, because I think that it could become a major company -- but that's dumb. Nobody's going to steal my ideas if implementing them is sufficiently difficult, and implementing these ideas is sufficiently difficult. So I can safely post them... worst case scenario is that I never write them, nobody ever reads about them, and nobody ever attempts. Best case scenario is I and any cofounders I happen to find eventually implement them on our own, and somewhere in between is that I'm never involved in successfully implementing them but someone else eventually runs with them... As I said yesterday, I have way too many things that I want to do with my life, and not enough time to do them all. If I put a little bit of effort into spreading the ideas that I really want somebody to run with (preferably myself, but I don't actually have time) then more of those things might eventually get accomplished than if I keep my ideas private. So I'll give an overview of my biggest concept of revision today, and start building it up more tomorrow.

I also want to post my second piece on market cap today on my financial commentary blog... I'm going to revoke my previous naming scheme. "Lesson X" is just too pretentious. So I'm going to just go with "Part X" instead.

Next, I need to post more book reviews. I said I was going to do this earlier, but I didn't... so I need to do it today. I'm going to post on The Innovator's Dilemma today, and Zero to One tomorrow... then hopefully move onto biology soon. Sunday, I'm probably going to do a quick post to cover books I've dropped recently... I think I should at least mention that some books just don't make the cut of being worth reading for me, even with sunk costs (3CoY, AotS, tNG are the three I just dropped).

So that's three posts I want to publish today. I also need to finish updating my resume to address what I've been doing with my time over the past few months, and write a cover letter for Oyster.

This feels a bit ambitious for one day, but I think it ought to be manageable.

We'll see.

It took me twenty minutes to summarize what I plan to do... hopefully I can establish some sort of correlation between that time and the amount of time it takes me to accomplish things as I move forward.